On the fourth anniversary of Russia-Ukraine war, the public seems to have almost forgotten about it. The news is a repetitive cycle of Russian air strikes on civilian infrastructure and retaliatory Ukrainian drone strikes. Moreover, the OSINT-map of war in Ukraine won’t show you any significant Russian advances – you should have exceptional geography knowledge to find another depopulated village occupied by Russia.
However, these microscopic Russian advances were achieved at incredible human cost. This war increasingly resembles World War I – not by a scale of international involvement, but in terms of the scale of senseless exhaustion, the viscosity of the front line and the cost of human losses per contested square metre. Since the 2025 summer offensive, Russian forces were only able to occupy 0.8% of Ukrainian land, at the cost of tens of thousands of lives. The current realities of frontline look like scenes from “All Quiet on the Western Front” mixed with modern cruel drone warfare. The soldiers’ inspired mood gave way to war horrors and fatigue. On both sides.
The frontline reality contrasts sharp with everyday life in the rear. Ukrainian cities suffer from Russian bombardments, but ordinary citizens got used to it, moreover you may see pictures of packed nightclubs and restaurants. However, despite those optimistic photos, demographic crisis is the most concerning problem for government in Kyiv, as approximately seven million Ukrainian nationals have got asylum around the world. Combined with a conscription of young men, the future of Ukrainian economy is disturbing and hugely relies on support of its allies.
While Ukrainians are dealing with terror missile attacks and grim demographic, Russians have another huge problem – deep-strike drones, sanctions and political isolation, which already has an impact on aggressor’s economy. And ordinary Russians can already feel it in their bills and grocery stores. Kremlin has successfully restructured the economy for war. Many “sceptics” claim that sanctions hurting the West rather than Russians, but GDP growth they refer to is fully ensured by the military-industrial complex. Oil prices have reached a historic low, and the government tightened its belts, but unfortunately this is not enough for Russian economy to collapse. There is still a room for new tax hikes, and the public mood is way far from a hunger riot. Putin’s regime is strong as it never was, with no real opposition.
This year brought new hope to end the war. New US administration held many peace talks, including the most famous one in Anchorage, Alaska. But as of today, the peace talks more remind a “Santa Barabra” soap opera rather than a real path for long-lasting peace. Endless talks designed to feed the ego of New-York ex-realtor in pursuit of Nobel Peace Prize.
While Ukrainians propose real solutions and compromises, Russian delegation speaks in ultimatums. It may even look Russian delegation is trying to negotiate real peace deal, but “suddenly” there is new absurd condition. Kremlin is aware of the consequences of withdrawing from the talks and subsequent Trump’s wrath, so that’s the reason why they are dragging out negotiations. The trilateral talks for Russians are mechanism to appease Trump and suspend American support for Ukraine in the hope of Kyiv’s capitulation.
Having an open sympathy, Trump used all available levers of influence on Ukraine: suspended direct supply of US ammunition, asking European allies to buy them for Ukraine; cut off fiscal support and intelligence information. Because it’s always the easiest path to pressure the weak side. However, Ukraine stands firm to the great regret of Trump and Putin, bolstered by increased European support.
Nevertheless, Kremlin has an option to end the war right now. Zelenskyy is ready for compromise to freeze the frontline, but it’s not enough for Putin, which might be suicidal for him. Trump offers him a draw and a virtually bloodless exit from isolation and sanctions. The exit from the war that was foreseen as the end of his regime. But with incoming US senate elections in November, Trump could lose his carte blanche to negotiate with Russian dictator due to enormous pressure from the Democrats. The risk for Putin may not pay off.
Russian warlords, gun dealers and elites won’t forgive Putin a draw in this war, as it’s their income and source of power. Putin realises all risks of continuing the war, both economic and political, but here is a dilemma for him – continuing the war is expensive, but ending it is even more costly for the regime.
But here we come to the real reason behind the war. This bloodbath isn’t classic capitalistic war for markets and influence – this is colonial, middle-age style, existential warfare against Ukrainians as a nation. Putin unabashedly claims that Ukrainians don’t exist as a nation and Russian authorities are pursuing russification policy on occupied Ukrainian land. The only acceptable peace deal for Putin is capitulation of government in Kyiv and the final end of the Ukrainian state.
Yet, another year of the biggest war in Europe since 1945 has passed, and there is still no end in sight to this bloodbath. And while the entire world watches and too shy to put extra pressure on the aggressor, hundreds of men and women die every day for yet another square meter of a city that has become a battlefield, once a home for somebody. For such a little piece of land, that most people won’t even notice.
