Once the scoreboard hits zero in U.S. Bank Stadium Minnesota, following Monday Night Football, a milestone will be passed. The midway mark of the NFL season. The clocks go back, a frontrunner for the MVP (Most Valuable Player) emerges from the pack.
Last season, the pendulum swung from east to west.
Drake Maye, the fresh-faced quarterback of the New England Patriots, led his team to a 14-3 record and a first Super Bowl appearance in the post Tom Brady era.
Cross-country, in sunny Inglewood California was Matthew Stafford, quarterback of the Los Angeles Rams. His team was the only one to best the Patriots’ offense , averaging 30.5 points per game. Enough for Stafford, 13 years the senior of his rival to pip him to the biggest individual accolade in the sport and the first of his career.
When the votes were revealed, 5 points separated the two. The smallest margin seen between two players since the 2003 MVP race.
Value is subjective. Individual statistics, strength of schedule and narratives all play a role in making voter’s decisions. Will a close contest happen again? Let’s look at the bookmaker’s favourites for the 2026 NFL MVP award.
Josh Allen 13/8
1,793 Passing Yards – 11 Passing TDs – 5 Interceptions – 76.9 QBR
Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen doesn’t have the passing stat line that screams MVP favourite. In fact, his seasonal trajectory is comparable to that Carolina Panthers Bryce Young last season – not to be sniffed at but nowhere near MVP caliber.
Allen of course, is as well known for his effectiveness with the ball tucked under his arm, trucking 250lb linebackers, as he is for piercing through the baltic Orchard Park Highfield Park air with the pigskin.
His effectiveness on the ground in the red zone is prevalent once again. Recording 9 rushing touchdowns in his opening 7 games this season, to the joy of the Bills Mafia and the despair of James Cook fantasy owners.
The 6-1 record the Bills possess has been hard-fought up to this point, winning 4 of 6 games by 8 points or less.
What’s most impressive about Allen is that he’s doing this in spite of what’s happening when he’s on the sidelines, the Bills defense allowing the 9th most points per game (25.9).
The NFL have shied away from awarding the MVP to the same player in consecutive years. But a year removed from winning the accolade in 2024, the Winter Soldier might have to make space on the mantelpiece very soon.
Joe Burrow 4/1
2,115 Yards – 20 Passing TDs – 6 Interceptions – 76.9 QBR
It’s quite simple, when Joe Burrow is on the field, Joe Burrow plays well.
And when Joe Burrow has an average defense (14th ppg allowed )and doesn’t have to be in constant shoot outs every week, the Cincinnati Bengals are a problem for everyone.
Injuries have hampered the 29-year-old since he’s entered the league. Blame has fallen on the feet of the organization, failing to build a legitimate offensive line around their franchise quarterback.
But the offensive line took a step forward this year. The ownership resigned guard Dalton Risener and extended tackle Orlando Brown for a further two years. Keeping the full unit together under second year offensive line coach Scott Peters looks to be a key difference.
Burrow’s situation may be the perfect storm for an MVP push.
The receiving core at his disposal dwarfs those available to the other MVP frontrunners. Ja’Marr Chase received first team all pro honors the last two year and Tee Higgins is performing at an elite level.
The Bengals have also struggled to effectively run the ball this season with lead running back Chase Brown only averaging 3.6 yards per carry (YPC) which has led to head coach Zach Taylor pushing a more pass heavy game plan.
They also face an easier schedule than most in the back half of the season, only playing 3 teams which currently have a winning record ( four games in total as they face Cleveland twice).
And having faced so much adversity in the first half of his career, the narrative is there. There’s a real opportunity for the Tiger King to claim his first MVP award.
Brock Purdy 5/1
1,748 Yards – 15 Passing TDs – 4 Interceptions – 79.3 QBR
Could Brock shock us all?
Following talk of the reigning Super Bowl champions Seattle Seahawks and superteam Los Angeles Rams all offseason, Brock Purdy’s San Fransisco 49ers lead the NFC West with a 6-1 record.
Brock Purdy is playing exceptional football at the moment, running Kyle Shanahan’s West Coast offense to a tee and has shown he is a legitimate MVP candidate since their Week One win over the Rams in Melbourne.
The 49ers suffered their first defeat of the season to the Atlanta Falcons. Purdy threw two interceptions, including one late on when they were down by 6 points. The performance has seen him slip from favourite to third.
The 26-year-old’s MVP campaign will hinge on his ability to maintain the level he did early on in the season. Keeping Mike Evans fit is a big priority, as he’s become a reliable 3rd down target so soon after joining.
If so, then it could be Mr. Irrelevant to League MVP, the story writes itself.
Trevor Lawrence 11/2
Trevor Lawrence – 1,932 Yards – 18 Passing TDs – 4 Interceptions – 64.4 QBR
Listed as the one of the greatest high school prospects of all time and a consensus number one overall pick coming out of college. The cameras have been on Trevor Lawrence for over half his life, tough for a man that has recently just turned 27.
Growing pains have been a part of the former Clemson quarterbacks time in the NFL, poor coaching, issues with delivering touch on the ball but last year it clicked. 38 total touchdowns including 9 with his legs, the most since entering the league in 2021.
Under the tutelage of Liam Coen, Lawrence has taken the next step up as a passer, forming strong connections with pass catchers Parker Washington & Brenton Strange.
Led by a stout defence allowing just 15.2 points per game (2nd in the league), Lawrence might not have to deal with a shootout in many games this season.
In a weak division, The AFC South has cried out for a contender to take the reigns for years. The Jacksonville Jaguars might just be that. Lawrence should make use his advantageous position as no quarterback has won an MVP with less than 11 wins since 1987 (John Elway).
It’s rare that a child prodigy ever goes on to fulfill their potential but T-Law looks determined to change the narrative this season. The child born to be king might finally get his crown.
Caleb Williams 8/1
1,267 Yards – 6 Passing TDs – 1 Interception – 77.0 QBR
Having torn his hamstring in a Week Two loss to the Vikings, the MVP chances of Chicago Bears quarterback Caleb Williams, similar to said hamstring, lay in shreds.
But following two huge wins over last year’s Super Bowl contestants New England Patriots & Seattle Seahawks, Williams has catapulted himself back amongst the top 5.
Since head coach Ben Johnson was poached from their division rivals Detroit Lions, a new lease of life has been injected into the city of Chicago and it’s team.
The offense has had such success running the ball that Williams is only called upon when needed.
His reading of the game has improved year on year, and in Luther Burden & Colston Loveland he has two weapons that he may lean on for years to come. Elusive in the pocket, Williams’s ability to run is like private health insurance. You hope you don’t have to use it, but you’re sure glad you’ve got the option.
Last season was the coming-out party, winning a playoff game before eventually losing in the divisional round of the playoffs. But Williams has his eyes set on one place – Los Angeles, where the Super Bowl is held this year.
The accolade may be beyond his reach having missed 3 full games through injury but what’s occurring in Chicago seems bigger than a trophy. After sending two first round picks to acquire Jeffery Simmons from the Tennessee Titans, a message was sent to the rest of the league. The future is now.
With the weight of a city on his back each time he takes the field, Chicago’s catalyst won’t mind if he’s more of a long shot for the award.
